Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
